Big Brown was a shooting star in 2008

Horseracing Betting Lines

10/14/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The buzz began following his double-digit victory in a maiden race on the turf at Saratoga in 2007. He did not race again until the Gulfstream Park meet in early 2008.

Big Brown lit up the sky with a commanding win in the Florida Derby from the far outside post. The colt convinced the skeptics by easily taking the Kentucky Derby from the unheard of assignment of post 20.

"I don't see that he beat a great Derby field," trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr. said after Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby, "so I wouldn't know how to judge things." Like Secretariat (in 1973), that was best crop I've ever seen in my life, and he beat 'em, he took 'em to the cleaners every time he ran against them. I'm not one to compare him against past horses. It just wasn't a strong Derby field other than our horse."

Dutrow was probably correct in his evaluation of the crop of three-year-olds in 2008. They have not proven to be quite as good as the group from 2007. However, Big Brown was given every disadvantage in the Run for the Roses and still won convincingly.

Two weeks later Big Brown and rider Kent Desormeaux won the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico to move within one win of sweeping the Triple Crown.

"Anybody that watched the race could see Kent never hit him with the stick that I could see," observed Dutrow. "Kent might have asked him to run for a 16th of a mile when he turned for home just to put the race away and glided to the wire. I'm going to be under the impression that he's going to be awful tough to beat in the Belmont."

Three weeks later the unimaginable occurred. Big Brown's last place finish in the Belmont Stakes, after being eased by Desormeaux, will never be properly explained.

Given time off, Big Brown made his next start in the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park as the 1-5 favorite. It's a race that will be remembered by everyone who saw it. Big Brown let Coal Play set the pace. Coal Play appeared to be on his way to an upset.

Trainer Nick Zito had already shocked the world when his Da' Tara won the Belmont Stakes. This time he sent out Coal Play and seemed again to be set for an upset.

"I thought we had a helluva shot turning for home," Zito said. "I thought to myself 'We could do this again.' I'm very happy right now. We made him (Big Brown) run, that's for sure. But this is good for racing. Coal Play ran a big race."

Down the stretch Big Brown drifted to the outside and looked to be unable to catch Coal Play.

"I thought we were in trouble at the quarter-pole," noted Big Brown's majority owner Michael Iavarone. "Nick Zito's horse ran so big. He kicked away from us and I thought we were in trouble. This was another dimension for Big Brown, he showed his heart and courage."

Big Brown found something late down the stretch to catch Coal Play and avoid another shocking loss.

Dutrow kept Big Brown ready for the Breeders' Cup Classic by starting him in a turf stakes at Monmouth. The win in the Monmouth Stakes over Proudinsky was impressive, because the colt showed he could meet a challenge.

"The way he dug down this afternoon showed his true heart and his true courage," noted Iavarone. "There is nothing he can do that will surprise me any more."

However, that would prove to be Big Brown's final race. The leading three- year-old of 2008 has been retired following a hoof injury suffered during training.

The anticipated match-up with Curlin in the Breeders' Cup Classic will never take place. Big Brown is assured of being named 2008 Eclipse Award winner as champion male three-year-old.

"My family and I are saddened to learn of Big Brown's career ending injury during his morning workout," Jess Jackson, majority owner of Curlin, said in a statement. "I have always said what an incredible horse Big Brown is and that the bay colt brought energy and excitement to our industry, especially during his run at the Triple Crown.

"I am equally disappointed that Big Brown and Curlin will never compete against each other. It was a dream of mine and thousands of other fans of the sport. Now, we all join together in wishing Big Brown a speedy recovery."

Disappointment is the appropriate word. Dutrow said a lot through the summer about his horse versus Curlin. It was the most anticipated pairing in a long time.

We can only wish Big Brown the best in his new career as a stallion. May he produce competitive thoroughbreds that we can enjoy watching compete.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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