Blue Jays try to catch Yankees in standings

Baseball Betting Lines

08/20/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two American League East foes currently headed in opposite directions continue a three-game set tonight at Toronto's Rogers Centre, where the surging Blue Jays shoot for a second consecutive win over the reeling New York Yankees.

New York's fading playoff hopes took another hit in Monday's series opener, when Toronto rallied for a pair of late runs to edge the Bronx Bombers by a 2-1 count. The loss, the Yankees' seventh in their last 10 contests, moved them 6 1/2 games behind the rival Boston Red Sox for the lead in the AL Wild Card standings.

In contrast, the Blue Jays have won three in a row and six of their last seven, and now trail New York by just one game in the battle for third place in the division.

Marco Scutaro snapped a 1-1 tie in the bottom of the eighth inning with a long fly ball that was misplayed by Yankees center fielder Johnny Damon. The play was ruled a double and brought home Joe Inglett, who had singled off reliever Jose Veras (3-2) earlier in the frame.

New York had another costly gaffe in the top of the ninth, as Alex Rodriguez singled to begin the inning but was thrown out by Jays first baseman Lyle Overbay while trying to stretch the hit into a double. Toronto closer B.J. Ryan then retired the next two hitters to record his 24th save of the season.

Scutaro's hit made a winner out of A.J. Burnett (16-9) after the Blue Jays starter limited the Yanks to one run on five hits over eight outstanding innings. The hard-throwing right-hander racked up a season-best 13 strikeouts in winning his sixth straight start.

New York starter Darrell Rasner also pitched well, allowing just one run and three hits in 6 2/3 frames despite getting a no-decision.

The Yankees would love to get a similar line out of Andy Pettitte tonight. The veteran lefty hasn't pitched particularly well as of late, having gone winless (0-2) in four starts since defeating Boston at Fenway Park on July 26.

Pettitte did deliver a solid seven innings in a no-decision against Kansas City on Friday, a game in which he gave up three runs on six hits and struck out seven. He's also performed well on the road this season, bringing a 7-4 record with a 3.87 earned run average into this evening's test.

The 36-year-old is 16-10 with a 4.16 ERA lifetime against Toronto, but was hung with a loss by the Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre last month. Pettitte was reached for four runs over six innings that day.

Coming off the best outing of his brief major league career, rookie David Purcey takes the mound for Toronto for his first-ever appearance against the Yankees.

Purcey notched his second win in the bigs with six shutout innings at Detroit on August 13, with the young left-hander yielding just two hits and three walks. Prior to that start, the 2004 first-round draft choice struck out eight batters over six frames in a home loss to Cleveland on August 8.

In six starts with the Blue Jays this season, Purcey has amassed a 2-3 record with a 5.93 ERA over 30 1/3 total innings.

These divisional foes have split 10 meetings in this year's season series, but the Blue Jays have won three of the four matchups held in Toronto.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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