Can Chiefs Find Win Number Two in Oakland?

Football Betting Lines

11/28/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Raiders are searching for a measure of consistency. The Kansas City Chiefs, who will visit the Silver and Black at the Coliseum on Sunday afternoon, are simply seeking a win.

The Raiders will be trying to build on one of the shocking results of Week 12, a 31-10 road victory over the first-place Denver Broncos last Sunday.

Oakland was able to snap a four-game winning streak by playing a rare bit of solid offensive football, with running backs Justin Fargas (24 carries, 107 yards) and Darren McFadden (38 rushing yards, 2 TD) fueling the run game and quarterback JaMarcus Russell (10-of-11, 152 yards, 1 TD) offering up the most efficient outing of his young career.

On defense, the Raiders held Jay Cutler (16-of-37 passing, 204 yards, 1 INT) and the prolific Broncos passing game firmly in check, and the special teams made its presence felt when return man Johnnie Lee Higgins contributed his second punt return for a touchdown in as many weeks.

With a win on Sunday, Oakland will have matched its 2007 win total with win number four, a modest but noteworthy achievement for an organization that has experienced well-chronicled struggles since reaching the Super Bowl following the 2002 season.

Looking up at the Raiders in the AFC West standings are the Chiefs, who have seemingly made some improvements in recent weeks but have not translated their development to the win column.

Kansas City comes into Oakland having lost 19 of its last 20 games, including seven in a row, and last Sunday dropped a wild 54-31 decision at home to the Buffalo Bills.

Again, defense was the most significant problem for Herm Edwards' club, which surrendered 444 yards and 27 first downs in the loss.

Following the performance, in which the Chiefs allowed the most points in team history, Kansas City ranks last in the NFL in total defense (406.3 yards per game), yards allowed per rush (5.0), opponents' third-down percentage (48.6), sacks recorded (6), and is tied for last in rushes allowed of 20 yards or longer (16).

The Chiefs offense, which had made strides with quarterback Tyler Thigpen at the helm in recent weeks, was counterproductive to the winning cause last week as well. Kansas City rolled up more than 460 yards in the game but was done in by five turnovers, including three from the second-year-pro Thigpen (two interceptions, one fumble).

On Sunday, the Coastal Carolina product will be seeking his first win in seven starts under center this year.

SERIES HISTORY

Kansas City holds a 50-44-2 edge in its all-time regular season series with Oakland, but has lost two in a row to the Raiders, including a 23-8 home loss in Week 2 and a 20-17 result at Arrowhead Stadium in week 12 of last season. The Chiefs won the front end of the 2007 home-and-home, taking a 12-10 road victory in Week 7, and is now 5-0 in Oakland since last losing there in 2002. Kansas City swept Oakland in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006.

In addition to the regular season history, the teams have met three times in the playoffs, with Kansas City holding a 2-1 edge. The Raiders won a 1968 AFL Division Playoff, the Chiefs returned the favor with a 17-7 victory in the 1969 AFL Championship, and Kansas City also triumphed in a 1991 AFC First- Round Playoff.

Edwards is 6-6 against the Raiders as a head coach, including playoff losses for his Jets to Oakland in both 2001 and 2002. The Raiders' Tom Cable will be meeting both Edwards and the Chiefs for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BALL

The Chiefs are eager to see how Thigpen (1577 passing yards, 13 TD, 7 INT) responds one week after posting arguably his weakest performance since becoming the full-time starter in October. Cutting down on the turnovers will be job number one for the youngster, who managed to complete 17-of-31 passes for 240 yards and three touchdowns when he wasn't giving the ball to the Bills. The pass-catching triumvirate of tight end Tony Gonzalez (65 receptions, 6 TD) and wideouts Dwayne Bowe (58 receptions, 6 TD) and Mark Bradley (24 receptions, 3 TD) has worked well with Thigpen in general, and all three of the players caught touchdown passes in the Buffalo loss (Bowe's came from backup QB Quinn Gray in the fourth quarter). Gonzalez was high-man with 10 grabs for 113 yards, and Bowe and Bradley combined for over 100 receiving yards in the contest. Against a suspect Raiders defense, Kansas City might rely more heavily on the run this week, which should mean significant touches for Larry Johnson (565 rushing yards, 3 TD) and Jamaal Charles (308 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 1 TD). Johnson made his nine touches count for 105 yards last week, while Charles scored a touchdown on a 36-yard pass play from Thigpen in the first quarter. The Kansas City o-line has surrendered 30 sacks on the year, including three last week.

The Chiefs will be looking to attack a Raiders defense that has had its primary struggles against the run, ranking 29th in NFL rushing defense (160 yards per game) but not allowing the Broncos to go wild on the ground last Sunday. Denver had a modest 115 rushing yards in the game, with the team's primary run-stoppers, linebackers Kirk Morrison (92 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Thomas Howard (73 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) along with strong safety Gibril Wilson (92 tackles, 1 INT), helping to guard against the big play. But it was the work of Oakland's coverage group that really deserved a gold star for the job it did against Cutler, who coughed up two turnovers and did not have a touchdown pass for the first time all year. Cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (24 tackles, 1 INT) limited Brandon Marshall to just four catches on the day, and fellow corners Chris Johnson (18 tackles, 1 INT) and Stanford Routt (12 tackles) were solid as well. The Silver and Black did not have a sack last week, and have recorded a modest 24 on the year, led by end Kalimba Edwards' (41 tackles) four. The Raiders are 10th in the NFL against the pass (195.5 yards per game) as Week 13 begins

WHEN THE RAIDERS HAVE THE BALL

Despite last week's solid showing from Russell (1597 passing yards, 7 TD, 4 INT), Oakland remains last in the league in NFL passing offense (140.2 yards per game), has thrown a league-low-tying seven touchdown passes on the year and remains last in the league in third-down percentage (25.5). That said, the quarterback may have found a new primary target in ex-Broncos receiver Ashley Lelie (11 receptions, 2 TD), who torched his old mates for four catches, 92 yards, and a touchdown last week. Lelie and Ronald Curry (14 receptions, 1 TD) figure to be the starters for Oakland, with the speedy Higgins used in the slot, and reliable tight end Zach Miller (32 receptions, 1 TD) operating over the middle. Like last week, a balance between Fargas (547 rushing yards) and McFadden (392 rushing yards, 3 TD, 14 receptions) will likely be struck in the backfield. McFadden's best outing as a pro to date came in the last meeting with Kansas City, when he went for 164 yards. Offensive line play has been a constant issue for the Raiders this year, though the group's 2008 total of 31 sacks was not added to last week.

Clearly, in order to post their second win of the year, the Chiefs will have to defend better than they did against Buffalo last week. Kansas City surrendered 171 yards on the ground, 273 through the air, and did not post a sack or cause a turnover. The injury-depleted state of the defense has made an already poor group downright wretched, and if ailing players like linebacker Pat Thomas (48 tackles) and cornerback Patrick Surtain (8 tackles) are able to return to the lineup this week, it can only help. Four rookies - cornerbacks Brandon Carr (54 tackles, 2 INT), Brandon Flowers (39 tackles, 2 INT), Maurice Leggett (29 tackles), and safety DaJuan Morgan (17 tackles) - have been logging major minutes in the secondary, while journeymen like end Jason Babin (11 tackles) and linebacker Rocky Boiman (37 tackles) are being asked to help prop up the front seven. Boiman had a team-high 11 tackles against Buffalo last week, while Babin had seven stops. Among the longtime starters, linebacker Derrick Johnson (47 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and safeties Bernard Pollard (65 tackles, 1 INT) and Jarrad Page (50 tackles, 3 INT) are currently making the biggest impact.

FANTASY FOCUS

Thigpen has shown he can move the Kansas City offense, and players like Bowe, Gonzalez and Bradley have all benefited from his improving comfort level running the attack. All of the above are worth considering in fantasy lineups on Sunday, but the best player to take a flier on is Larry Johnson, who has a chance to gut Oakland's deficient run defense. Leave the Kansas City defense and kicker Connor Barth on the waiver wire.

On the Raider side, both Fargas and McFadden could put up some numbers against the Chiefs defense, but still can't be considered first-rate options. Tight end Miller and wideouts Lelie and Curry should only start if you're desperate, and Oakland kicker Sebastian Janikowksi and the Raider defense are not start- worthy at this point in the season.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Raiders caught a break last week when they got to play against a depleted Denver defense with little ability to stop the run or defend the pass, and there's reason to believe Kansas City will provide the same type of matchup. The difference between the Broncos and Chiefs, however, is that Denver had a comfortable lead in the AFC West and was naturally listless against an uninspiring opponent, while Kansas City is desperate for a victory and sees a real opportunity for a much-needed victory. The Raiders haven't played the role of favorite in a long time, and that status will not bring out the best in one of the NFL's least reliable teams.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Chiefs 14, Raiders 12