07/26/2008 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Commentator, the 2005 champ, went wire-to-wire Saturday to register his second victory in the $750,000 Whitney Handicap at Saratoga. The win secures a spot for Commentator into the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita on Saturday, October 25.
Breaking from the inside post, Commentator broke quickly from the gate to take the lead around the clubhouse turn and into the backstretch. Pressing the pace in the 1 1/8 mile Whitney was Timber Reserve followed by Solar Flare in third and Grasshopper in fourth.
With John Velazquez in the saddle, the seven-year-old Commentator led the field up the backstretch and into the far turn. Still running in second was Timber Reserve while 7-2 favorite Solar Flare was third.
Commentator had the lead around the final turn while Solar Flare moved into second with Notional advancing into contention in the 11 horse field. At the top of the stretch Commentator opened daylight from his rivals as Student Council rallied on the outside.
Commentator went on to post a five-length victory over Student Council with Grasshopper finishing third. Salvator Mile winner Notional gained fourth followed by Rising Moon, Merchant Marine, Solar Flare (ARG), A. P. Arrow, Timber Reserve, Tasteyville and Cowtown Cat.
The time for the 81st Whitney Handicap was 1:50.23 on a fast track.
A gelding, Commentator is trained by Hall of Famer Nick Zito for Tracy Farmer. The win was worth $450,000 to increase Commentator's career earnings to more than $1.54 million.
At Saratoga alone the seven-year-old has won four of six starts and has been to the winner's circle 12 times in a 19 race career. The veteran runner was coming off a second-place finish to Divine Park in the Metropolitan Mile Handicap at Belmont Park on Memorial Day.
"Commentator is like George Foreman," Zito said. "He gets older but keeps coming up at a high level. He has his issues, but we have learned to space out his races and give him the time he needs. When he gets the time he needs, he usually comes up with his race. That's all we ever ask: for Commentator to be Commentator."
Commentator returned $10.80, $6.20 and $4.30. Student Council paid $7.60 and $4.70, and Grasshopper paid $4.80 to show.
In the other Breeders' Cup Challenge races Saturday at Saratoga, Forever Together won the Diana Stakes to gain entry into the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, the A.G. Vanderbilt Handicap went to Abraaj which puts him into the Breeders' Cup Sprint and putting herself back into the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic is defending champion Ginger Punch by winning the Go for Wand Handicap.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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