08/30/2008 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Curlin, 2007 Horse of the Year, took the lead late in the stretch to capture Saturday's $500,000 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. It was his first ever start at the historic track in upstate New York.
The 1 1/8 mile Woodward proved to be no problem for the four-year-old colt and jockey Robby Albarado. They settled into fourth place in the seven-horse field while Past the Point and Wanderin Boy set very fast fractions on the lead.
On the turn for home Curlin began to make his move, easily going past Divine Park and drawing close to the leaders. Racing on the outside, Albarado urged his mount into second, drawing ever closer to Past the Point.
The two horses raced on even terms until the sixteenth-pole when Curlin took the lead for good. He went on to post a length win over Past the Point with Wanderin Boy holding third and A.P. Arrow closing for fourth.
Finishing the final order was Loose Leaf, Divine Park and Out of Control. Dr. D. F. C. was a scratch.
The time for the 55th Woodward was 1:49.34
Owned by Stonestreet and Midnight Cry Stables, Curlin was sent off as the 3-10 favorite and gave Albarado his second Woodward victory. He piloted Mineshaft to the winner's circle in 2003.
"One of the great things about Mr. Jackson keeping him in training is being able to run in this race, with its history," said assistant trainer Scott Blasi. "There are only so many opportunities. We've never dodged anyone, and we've never had one given to us, he's always had to earn it."
The colt adds $300,000 to his career earnings which now total $9,796,800, second on the all-time money list. Skip Away is now third with $9,616,360 while Cigar holds the record with $9,999,815.
Trained by Steve Asmussen, Curlin was coming off a second-place finish on the turf in the Man o' War at Belmont Park. This year he also won the $6 million Dubai World Cup along with the Stephen Foster Handicap.
Curlin has now won six of his last seven starts, including last year's Breeders' Cup Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup. In his career he has 10 wins in 14 races.
His next start is still undecided.
Curlin returned $2.70, $2.40 and $2.10. Past The Point paid $13.80 and $6.40, and Wanderin Boy paid $3.50 to show.
<< BoSox call up Bowden for Saturday start
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox purchased the contract of
pitcher Michael Bowden from Triple-A Pawtucket Saturday.
Bowden is set to make his major league debut in a start against the Chicago
White Sox.
The move f
<< Bengals Cut RB Johnson, Anderson, 18 Others
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Running back Rudi Johnson, who started 59
games for the Bengals over a five-season span, was among the players released
as part of Cincinnati's "cut-down day" transactions on Saturday.
It had been widely sp
<< Kansas City Cheifs
Placed tight end Michael Merritt on the reserve/non- football injury list; released tackles Anthony Alabi and Will Svitek, tight end Michael Allan, wide receivers Jabari Arthur, Sergiori Joachim, Kevin McMahan and Bobby Sippio, cornerback Rashad Ba
<< Marseille edges Sochaux to remain unbeaten
Marseille, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Karim Ziani and Bakari Kone each scored as
Marseille edged Sochaux, 2-1, to remain unbeaten through four games in France's
Ligue 1 on Saturday.
Ziani opened the scoring in the 39th minute and Kone extend
Clark misses 59, takes lead at Deutsche Bank >>
Norton, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Clark's chances to become the fourth player
in PGA Tour history to shoot a 59 were derailed Saturday by back-to-back
bogeys at the end of his round, but the South African bettered his chances at
a first career
Giants Release Woodson, place Wright on IR, sign Carney >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The defending Super Bowl Champion New
York Giants appear set to go into the 2008 season with two quarterbacks, as
Anthony Wright and Andre' Woodson were both part of the team's "cut-down day"
transactions
Jets Release 21; Chatman Suspended >>
Hempstead, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Twenty-one members of the New York Jets,
including veterans Matt Chatham and Hank Poteat, were released as part of the
team's "cut-down day" maneuvers on Saturday. The team also announced a four-
game suspension
Busch grabs pole for Nationwide race at California >>
Fontana, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Busch won the pole for Saturday night's
Camping World RV Service 300 at the Auto Club Speedway. The No.18 Toyota
driver rounded the two-mile oval in 40.586 seconds (177.401 m.p.h.).
Busch recorde
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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American Idol Betting Season 6 Strategies
It's that time of year folks. Betting on American Idol Season 9. And we have plenty of American Idol Season 6 strategies appearing below. With the Top 24 finalists revealed, online gambling sites will be offering betting odds on each of them, including MySportsbook.com.
No other “event” has been growing as fast as wagering on American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably high limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. Last year, MySportsbook.com experienced unprecedented traffic as a result of the American Idol betting craze.
Every week there will be odds to win American Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus contestant match-ups at the MySportsbook.com website.
Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or watching only because of a wife or girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting American Idol.
Odds to Win
There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet. First off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make the mistake of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week. This strategy leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is less than what it should be.
All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you should always look for value. In last year’s competition alone, two performers who had some of the best performances early in the series were subsequently bet down to low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After just a few weeks, Tucker had already been eliminated, while Young quickly became a huge long shot to win America’s largest talent search.
A better strategy is to look for performers who don’t necessarily get the praise from the judges, but show flashes of the talent necessary to go the distance.
Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is the demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential future CD purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decided on the field of play – it’s decided by the American public under the guiding influence of the shows producers.
Understand that the great state of Alabama has a mighty edge when it comes to American Idol.
Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal opinions or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting public. Remember that the typical voter is young, female and quite often, Southern.
If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much talent he or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanor and charisma are extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every Idol winner so far has hailed from a Southern state.
Elimination Props
Every week MySportsbook.com anticipates offering a prop on who’ll be eliminated from the show each Wednesday night. A suggestion to handicap this is to gauge an overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the competition. Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared in the bottom three and will have been the target of repeated criticism from the judges.
Last year, resources included dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com. Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While by no means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is generating votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a site that attempts to build support for the worst competitor to keep them in the competition for ‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track record of keeping performers around who most feel should have been voted off a long time ago.
Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups
The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close either of the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected to be voted off of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost always on the underdog. If both are expecting an imminent exit in the near future, the favorite in the match-up might offer value.
Watch for American Idol betting odds on each of the contestants shortly and good luck with these American Idol betting strategies.
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