09/08/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 12-driver field for this year's "Chase for the Sprint Cup" championship was determined after Sunday's final race of the "regular season," the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at the Richmond International Raceway. Two weeks ago after Bristol, it appeared to be a two-man duel, the "Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards Show," but after winning back-to-back races at California and Richmond, Jimmie Johnson has now made it a "three-wide" battle for the Sprint Cup title.
Busch enters the 10-race "Chase," which begins next Sunday at New Hampshire, as the top seed after winning eight races. His last win, however, came a month ago at Watkins Glen. At the half-way point of the season in July, there was much talk of Busch tying or surpassing the "modern-era" record for most wins in a season. Richard Petty (1975) and Jeff Gordon (1998) share the record with 13 wins. Busch finished second to Edwards at Michigan and Bristol. Despite a 15th-place finish at Richmond, Busch will be a strong championship contender as he held a 207-point lead in the standings before his points were readjusted to 5,080 for the "Chase."
"It's a lot better to be at the top than it is down at the bottom," Busch said. "That makes it look a lot prettier from our seat. Just to go out there and run consistently in the final ten races and race these other 42 guys that are on the racetrack with us and yet still keep track or try to out race the other 11 that we are trying to beat out for the championship here."
Edwards begins the "Chase" in the second seed with 5,050 points. He won six races this season but was credited with 50 bonus points. He was docked 10 points for his Las Vegas win as part of a penalty for his team's post-race violation. At Richmond, Edwards suffered a flat tire and fell a lap behind in the early-going but rebounded with a 13th-place finish. The "Chase" looks promising for Edwards as five of the tracks remaining on this year's schedule are 1.5 miles in length, and Edwards generally runs well at them.
With four victories, Johnson secured the third seed with 5,040 points. Last year, he grabbed the top seed in the "Chase" after winning at California and Richmond. He went on to win four of the last five races of the season to capture his second-straight Sprint Cup title. Johnson is entering this year's "Chase" as arguably the favorite to win the championship, and if he pulls it off, he will join Cale Yarborough as the only drivers to win three titles in a row in the 60-year history of NASCAR. Yarborough won his titles consecutively from 1976-78.
"Now it's becoming more of a reality, Johnson said. "The less I can think about it, the better I'm going to be. The less I can think about all of the stuff that's coming up in the next ten races, the better I'm going to be, and just fall back into the confidence that I have in my race team and my abilities and the confidence that we are bringing to the track and give 100%."
While Busch, Edwards and Johnson play the role of "Chase" contenders, the remaining field might as well be labeled as "pretenders."
Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton, who all won a race this season, begin the "Chase" with 5,010 points each.
Earnhardt, Jr. was impressive in the first half of the season with solid finishes, but has faltered in the last two months. He finished fourth at Richmond, scoring his first top-five since his victory in June at Michigan. He heads to New Hampshire fourth in the championship standings.
A 12th-place finish at Richmond allowed Bowyer to capture the final spot in the "Chase" as he finished 69 points ahead of 13th-place Kasey Kahne. He secured the fifth seed. He kicked off last year's "Chase" by winning his first Cup race at New Hampshire. Bowyer remained a title contender until Johnson went on his four-race winning streak at the end of the season. He ended the year third in points. Bowyer will need another strong start in the "Chase" if he has a chance to contend for the title.
"The last three weeks have been a step in the right direction, and, you know, with some momentum, I think we can do just fine in the 'Chase'," Bowyer said. "We are going to a race that we won last year and got the thing started on the right foot, so hopefully we can have a good run there and do just that."
Hamlin, starting sixth, has made the "Chase" in his first three years. Hamlin fell to 12th in the standings after a 39th-place finish last month at Michigan, but has finished third in the last three races to secure him a spot in the playoffs. If he continues to run strong, he just might be up there fighting for the championship in the season-finale at Homestead.
Burton begins the "Chase" in the seventh seed. He has struggled lately, scoring only two top-10 finishes in the last 10 races. He did finish sixth at Richmond. Burton needs to be consistent if he has any shot at winning the title. He came out of the box strong in the 2006 "Chase" before his luck ran out with engine failure at Martinsville. He was out of the picture in last year's title race after a disappointing 36th-place finish at Kansas.
Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth are winless so far this year and enter the "Chase" with 5,000 points each.
Stewart had his best opportunity to pick up a win at Richmond but settled for a second-place finish. Stewart is leaving Joe Gibbs Racing at the end of the season to start his own team, and the communication flow between Stewart and his crew might not be the best right now, especially after what took place at Richmond.
"Can we for one week just leave it as we run second and we had a good, hard fought battle and we just fell short," Stewart said. "I mean, that's the moral of the story. Shoot, we could sit here for hours and try to dissect exactly why we didn't win the race."
Stewart heads to New Hampshire in the eighth spot and is hungry for a victory. If he gets on a winning streak at the end of the season, like he has in the past, he could be a surprise contender throughout the "Chase."
Biffle makes the "Chase" for the first time since 2005 and enters in the ninth seed. He finished second in the '05 title race, 35 points behind Stewart. Biffle has some promising tracks on the upcoming schedule as he scored the victory at Kansas last year and won three in a row at Homestead from 2004-06. He has also won at Dover and Texas.
Gordon is a four-time Cup champion but has yet to win a title under the "Chase" format. Gordon has competed in the "Chase" four of the first five years, finishing second in points last year and third in 2004. He failed to make the field in 2005. Gordon has not scored a victory since October 2007, so he's hoping his winning touch will return for the final races this season. He'll start in the 10th seed.
Harvick might be a surprise at least in the first part of the "Chase" as he has finished eighth or better in the last seven races. If Harvick remains consistent, he could go far. Harvick, starting 11th, has not won a Cup points- paying race since his Daytona 500 victory last year.
Kenseth enters the "Chase" in the 12th seed. He struggled earlier this season, but has rebounded to make the playoffs for the fifth consecutive year. Inconsistency continues to be a problem for Kenseth this year, especially after a 39th-place finish at Richmond.
This year's "Chase" should be a great contest among Busch, Edwards and Johnson. But any of the other drivers in the field could make things very interesting during the next couple of months.
After New Hampshire, the "Chase" moves on to Dover, then Kansas, Talladega, Charlotte, Martinsville, Atlanta, Texas, Phoenix and wraps up November 16th at Homestead.
<< Reds activate Hairston off DL
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Reds activated infielder Jerry
Hairston Jr. from the 15-day disabled list on Monday.
He had been on the DL since August 20, retroactive to August 18, with a
strained right hamstring.
<< Astros to call up Borkowski Tuesday
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Astros plan to purchase the
contract of veteran reliever Dave Borkowski from Triple-A Round Rock on
Tuesday.
The 31-year-old Borkowski recorded a 2-2 record with two saves and a
<< Seahawks lose WR Burleson to season-ending knee injury
Kirkland, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Nate Burleson
will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a left knee injury in
Sunday's season-opening loss to Buffalo.
Coach Mike Holmgren announced the news at
<< Medalist moves on easily at Women's Mid-Am
Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stroke-play medalist Wendi Patterson-Golden
was an easy winner Monday in the first round of match play at the U.S. Women's
Mid-Amateur.
Patterson-Golden, a 33-year-old from Florida, picked up a pair of
Boston activates Drew from DL, recalls two others >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox activated outfielder J.D.
Drew from the 15-day disabled Monday and recalled catcher George Kottaras and
utility player Chris Carter from Triple-A Pawtucket.
Drew was placed on the DL o
Mickelson's brother advances at Mid-Amateur >>
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Mickelson, the younger brother of PGA
Tour star Phil Mickelson, was among the 32 players who moved out of the first
round of match play Monday at the U.S. Mid-Amateur Championship.
Head golf coach a
Rain postpones Toronto/Chicago game >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Monday's game between the Toronto Blue Jays
and the Chicago White Sox has been postponed due to rain.
The game will be made up as part of a day/night doubleheader on Tuesday. The
rained-out game will begi
Pirates shortstop Wilson likely finished for season >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh shortstop Jack Wilson will likely
miss the remainder of the season after a second X-ray on a sprained right
index finger revealed a hairline fracture near the tip of the finger.
Doctors advis
NEW YORK (AP) -By staying away from the cupcakes, Southern California earned itself a slim new ranking.
No. 1 always seems to fit USC.
Southern California jumped two spots to No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25 on Tuesday, rewarded by voters for opening the season with a dominant performance on the road against a BCS conference opponent.
Georgia and Ohio State, the preseason Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, started their seasons with glorified scrimmages at home against FCS (formerly I-AA) teams. USC, however, traveled across country to face Virginia and could not have been more impressive in a 52-7 victory.
Georgia fell to No. 2 and Ohio State to No 3.
"We realize that rankings so early in a season are certainly fluid. But rankings do help establish a pecking order for things later in the season," USC coach Pete Carroll said in a statement. "As for moving into the No. 1 spot, it's nice to know that people think highly of our team."
Since reaching No. 1 on Dec. 7, 2003, the final-regular season AP poll of that season, USC has been No. 1 in 39 polls, by far the most of any team during that time.
"Some have said the voters are taking our schedule into consideration," Carroll said. "Our philosophy has always been to schedule outstanding opponents. We need to play challenging games like we just did, traveling across the country to open the season at Virginia. Games like that bring out our best and make us stronger as a team."
The latest voting was close. USC received 21 first-place votes and 1,539 points from the 65-member media panel. Georgia had 20 first-place votes and 1,506 points. Ohio State got 15 first-place votes and 1,497 points.
"I'd say we've evolved as pollsters," said Stewart Mandel of SI.com, who moved USC up to No. 1. "In the past, voters just kind of automatically moved teams up and kept teams where they were if they won."
Georgia beat Georgia Southern 45-21 on Saturday and Ohio State opened with a 43-0 win over Youngstown State.
"There's a bit of a growing backlash for the amount of teams that open with I-AA cupcakes," said Mandel, whose book "Bowls, Polls and Tattered Souls" chronicles college football's controversies. "To see a team [USC] go on the road and play a New Year's Day bowl team from last season, and not only play them but destroy them, how could you not reward that team?"
USC also jumped past Georgia to No. 1 in the USA Today coaches' poll, which has the same top five as the AP poll.
"It's definitely a privilege to be No. 1. But it's not heartbreaking to me if we drop," Georgia offensive lineman Josh Davis said. "It doesn't matter right now what we're ranked. What matters is our next game and right now, that's Central Michigan. The only time the polls matter is in December. That's when the polls matter."
While the Bulldogs opened easy, their schedule ultimately should be as difficult as any team's. Georgia's big nonconference test is at No. 15 Arizona State on Sept. 20. The Bulldogs also face six Southeastern Conference rivals that've been ranked in the first two polls.
As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes play at USC on Sept. 13 before getting into the Big Ten schedule.
But of the teams in this week's top 10, USC and Texas are the only ones that don't play an FCS opponent, and the Trojans are the only team that doesn't play a team from a non-BCS conference.
Get the latest 2009 BCS Championship odds at MySportsbook.com.
The last team to drop from No. 1 after a victory was USC last season. LSU jumped from No. 2 to No. 1 when it beat Tulane 34-9, the same week the Trojans edged Washington 27-24 on the road.
The last preseason No. 1 team to lose the top spot after winning its opening game was Florida in 2001. The Gators beat Marshall 49-14, but preseason No. 2 Miami opened with a 33-7 victory over Penn State and the Hurricanes jumped to No. 1 with Florida slipping to second.
The next four teams in the new Top 25 stayed the same: No. 4 Oklahoma (two first-place votes), No. 5 Florida (five first-place votes), No. 6 Missouri (one first-place vote), No. 7 LSU (one first-place vote) and No. 8 West Virginia.
No. 9 Auburn and No. 10 Texas each moved up a spot, taking advantage of Clemson's big drop. Clemson, ninth in the preseason, fell out after losing 34-10 to Alabama on Saturday.
Also falling out after losses were Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Tennessee.
Moving into the rankings were No. 21 Fresno State, No. 22 Utah, No. 23 UCLA and No. 24 South Carolina.
Alabama moved up 11 spots after its big victory over Clemson.
The second 10 started with No. 11 Wisconsin, followed by Texas Tech, Alabama and Kansas. BYU and Arizona State were tied for 15th. Rivals BYU and Utah are both ranked for the first time since 1996.
South Florida was No. 17, ahead of Oregon, Penn State and Wake Forest at No. 20.
The final five were all the teams to move into the ranking, except for Illinois, which dropped four spots and tied South Carolina for No. 24.
Get free Sports Betting lines RSS feeds from top rated online sportsbook MySportsbook.com
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting