This Week in Auto Racing May 24 - May 27

Autoracing Betting Lines

05/22/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This Sunday marks the most exciting day of the motor racing season. It begins early in the morning with the classic Grand Prix of Monaco, continues with the Indianapolis 500 and concludes around midnight when the checkered flag flies at the Lowe's Motor Speedway to signify the end of the Coca-Cola 600.

INDYCARS

Indianapolis 500 - Indianapolis Motor Speedway - Indianapolis, IN

After a long three weeks of preparation and qualifying its time to get down to actual racing. Eleven rows of three cars will squeeze onto the Indianapolis Motor Speedway and begin to accelerate down the front straight for 200 laps and a chance at immortality.

If you win the 91st running of the "Greatest Spectacle in Racing," your name and likeness are forever enshrined on the Borg-Warner Trophy. You are seen on every television station and highlights of your win are seen around the world.

Last year, Sam Hornish Jr. won the race to highlight his career. Yes, he had already won two IndyCar Series championships, but it wasn't until he won Indianapolis that his resume was complete.

The victory by Hornish Jr. wasn't assured until he crossed the finish line.

Hornish Jr. got past Michael Andretti and on lap 198 of 200 and took a shot in turn three for the lead. But rookie Marco Andretti got to the corner first and Hornish Jr. fell back about six lengths.

"I thought that it was over when I didn't get by him in (turn) three," said Hornish Jr.

The three-time IndyCar Series champion gathered up his Penske Honda and made one last effort. He closed onto Marco Andretti's bumper as they entered the final two turns. Marco was still ahead as they came out of turn four and could see the finish line and the last "yard of bricks."

Hornish Jr. made one last move on the inside and got alongside Marco Andretti as they neared the checkered flag. Hornish Jr. edged Marco to the finish line and earned his first Indy 500 victory.

"I thought I had it," said a disappointed, but proud Marco Andretti. "I don't know where that speed came from, I guess they were saving it."

"He (Marco) had a heck of a ride and no matter what happened he should be proud of that," said Hornish Jr. of the 19-year-old Marco Andretti.

Its now one year later and hopefully this year can be just as exciting.

This year it appears that three teams have cars good enough to win the race.

Certainly Dan Wheldon and the Target Chip Ganassi Racing team have the speed. The Englishman has already won twice this year and led a total of 483 out of 700 laps. Wheldon's teammate Scott Dixon is second in the standings with two second and two fourth-place results.

In third place is two-time Indy 500 winner Helio Castroneves. He owns a win at St. Petersburg and four top-10s. His teammate and defending champion Hornish Jr. is sixth overall.

Last year Penske Racing and Chip Ganassi dominated the series winning 12 of 14 races and combining for 47 top-10s.

The newest challenge to their dominance is from Andretti Green Racing. After a relatively non-competitive 2006, the team is rebounding well and has been right in every race.

Dario Franchitti is fourth in the championship which includes three top-fives. One of his teammates at AGR, Tony Kanaan, is fifth in the standings and won at Twin Ring Motegi in Japan.

Kanaan is the same driver that dominated the series in 2004 winning three times, collecting 16 top-10s (out of 16) and completed every single lap. So the talent behind the wheel is still there. Danica Patrick is the third member of the team and eighth in the championship. The fourth and member of AGR is of course Marco Andretti. They also have a "one-time only" member for this race - owner Michael Andretti.

Michael still dreams of winning the "500" as a driver. He has won it as an owner, but the "driver" it him believes he can still win the one title that has eluded him.

"I'm really excited about our chances," said Michael Andretti, who will compete in his 16th Indy 500.

Since Mario Andretti won the "500" in 1969, members of the Andretti family including his son, Michael and grandson Marco, have had 50 unsuccessful tries at winning the title.

"In 1992 I think I led 170 laps and with 10 laps to go the drive belt on the front engine broke and that was it," Michael Andretti said. "I was just cruising, I was literally coasting, trying to bring it home. I had a lap lead. It wasn't my day."

Maybe this Sunday will be Michael's day.

NASCAR

Nextel Cup

Coca-Cola 600 - Lowe's Motor Speedway - Concord, NC

It was very late in the evening of May 29th, 1994 and a young Jeff Gordon pulled into Victory Lane at the Lowe's Motor Speedway for his first Nextel Cup win. He was just 22 years, nine months and 25 days old and the youngest winner in the history of the 1.5-mile track.

After four championships and 77 more wins, Gordon is still going strong. Through the first 11 events, Gordon has three wins and 10 top-10s to build a lead of 231 points. In the past five races he has been even better. The No.24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet driver has earned 900 points or 180 points per race.

Gordon owns four wins and 15 top-10s at the Concord, NC track, though of late he has struggled. He finished 36th in last year's Coca-Cola 600 and only a little better in the fall event - 24th. In 2005 Gordon finished 36th and 38th so its possible that someone might eat into Gordon's big lead.

That someone would probably be his teammate Jimmie Johnson, the defending series champion. Johnson "owns" the track that has the same name as his primary sponsor. He leads all active drivers with five wins in 11 career starts at Lowe's, including 10 consecutive top-10 finishes.

Johnson won three consecutive "600s" from 2003-2005 and swept both points events in both 2004 and 2005. In the last three years he has finished no worse than third. He also won twice in the All-Star Challenge.

Last year, Johnson finished second twice at Lowe's, both times behind Kasey Kahne.

Kahne had a great 2006, winning a series-high six times and finishing a career-best eighth in the "Chase."

But 2007 has been rough for the young Evernham Motorsports driver. Heading into this Memorial Day weekend, Kahne has accrued just one top-10 amd that was in the season opener at Daytona. Although he has climbed from 36th to 30th over the past few weeks, he is well behind last year's pace when he was eighth at this time.

Its not just Kahne, but the entire Evernham Motorsports team that is struggling. Teammates Elliott Sadler (17th) and Scott Riggs (37th) are also frustrated with the team's results.

"We will get things worked out," said Kahne on his website. "We will. We're making progress. We haven't gotten there yet, but we will. We're confident we will get our performance level where we expect it to be and that's running with the leaders each week."

Maybe this will be the week for Kahne and Evernham.

Busch

Carquest Auto Parts 300 - Lowe's Motor Speedway - Concord, NC

While not exactly a proving ground for young aspiring drivers, NASCAR's Busch Series is proving to be a haven for proven open-wheel drivers to test the waters for a career in NASCAR.

As has been the norm for years, there will be way too many Nextel Cup drivers on the Busch Series entry list. In fact, there are 23 Nextel Cup drivers listed this week, not including NASCAR Hall-of-Fame driver Bill Elliott who is also entered. At least Elliott's excuse is that he needs seat time before his comeback in the Coca-Cola 600.

Though not entered this week (he's busy at Indy), Sam Hornish Jr. has made a number of starts in the series. The 2006 Indianapolis 500 winner has made five starts this year with a best finish of 15th in Atlanta.

Juan Montoya began his NASCAR career in the Busch Series and it has helped increase his learning curve. This season he is running in both the Busch and Nextel Cup Series. He is currently ninth in the Busch Series standings including a win at Mexico City.

Dave Blaney began his career in sprint cars and jumped to the Busch Series. He captured his first win in the series last fall at the Lowe's Motor Speedway.

In 1998 J.J. Yeley finished ninth as a rookie in the Indianapolis 500. He is one of five drivers trying to run full-time in both Busch and Nextel Cup. Other NASCAR drivers with open-wheel beginnings include: Kasey Kahne, Robby Gordon, Casey Mears and Tony Stewart.

In the championship "race," its all about Carl Edwards. The No.60 Ford driver leads the series by 433 over Kevin Harvick and 599 over third-place David Reutimann. Edwards is tied for the series lead with two wins and owns a series-high eight top-fives to go with 11 top-10 finishes in the season's first 12 races.

Edwards is also the defending Carquest Auto Parts 300 winner. He beat Kurt Busch to the finish line by a comfortable 2.458 seconds. Edwards was second behind Mears when Randy LaJoie spun with 17 laps to go.

Mears took the green flag and shot off to a solid lead. But Edwards fought back and wouldn't let him get away. With 14 laps to go, Mears reported that his fuel light started to flicker. Was he almost out of fuel?

He was holding a half-second lead with 10 laps to go when another caution flag came out for the 10th time. There were just six laps (nine miles) to go when the race restarted. The answer was quickly apparent - Mears didn't have enough fuel. Edwards charged to the lead in turn one and so did Busch, Yeley and Johnson. With five laps to go, Edwards' lead was 1.5 seconds and no one was going to catch him.

Hopefully, someone will step up and challenge Edwards this Saturday and for the rest of the season. Otherwise, its going to be a boring summer in the Busch Series.

Craftsman

Ohio 250 - Mansfield Motorsports Speedway - Mansfield, OH

Mike Skinner leads the series in points (1,052), winnings ($242,950), laps led (444), wins (3), poles (4), top-5 finishes (5) and races led (6). Its no wonder that he holds a commanding 85-point lead over defending series champion Todd Bodine and 106 over Ron Hornaday Jr.

Skinner has actually won the last four consecutive poles but is still well behind his own record of eight straight poles which he accomplished in 1995. Skinner won four of those races. He has kept up that percentage winning two of the four races during his pole streak.

Its on to Mansfield, OH where Hornaday Jr. is the defending champion. He edged Jack Sprague by 0.961 seconds in a caution-filled event (18 flags for 85 laps).

Hornaday won last week's race at Lowe's as well. With 11 laps to go in the race he held a two-second lead over Johnny Benson. As Benson came off turn four his right-front tire blew causing him to crash into the wall to bring out the sixth caution flag.

The No.33 Chevrolet led the field to the restart with six laps remaining. Hornaday Jr. held onto his lead as A.J. Allmendinger followed close behind. With three laps to go Erik Darnell brought out the caution flag to set up a green-white-checkered finish.

On the restart Hornaday Jr., known as "The King of Restarts," maintained the top-spot as Allmendinger spun his tires. Allmendinger couldn't make a run on Hornaday Jr. and he crossed the finish line by a comfortable margin.

"Once we got three wide on the track, and it stuck when I was wide open, I knew this was going to be a good truck," said Hornaday Jr.

Hornaday, the series record holder with 30 wins, had not won a race since July 8, 2006. The streak was the third-longest of Hornaday's career - he went 28 races without a victory in 2005-2006.

FORMULA ONE

Grand Prix of Monaco - Streets of Monte Carlo - Monte Carlo, Monaco

The Formula One traveling road show brings its circus to the narrow streets of downtown Monte Carlo for its traditional and most famous event of the season.

The Grand Prix stands alongside other racing events such as the Daytona 500, 24 Hours of Lemans and Indianapolis 500 as one of the great events in motorsports.

However, despite its prestige, star-studded audience and long history that dates back to 1950, the race presents many challenges to the teams. While it may be the height of glamour for the spectators, for the teams, the reality of working at Monaco is very different.

The nature of the 2.075-mile street circuit also makes it very hard to simulate during test sessions, resulting in it being one of the most unpredictable races.

It is a tricky track with plenty of slow-speed corners, forcing drivers to work hard throughout the 78-lap race.

However, despite such confining streets and very low average speeds, the cars still manage to reach speeds in excess of 175 m.p.h. This, coupled with the absence of gravel traps between the track and unforgiving steel barriers, leaves the drivers with no margin for error if they want to see the checkered flag.

"Monaco is the most difficult circuit on the calendar because of the nature of the street circuit and its surface. You're never more than a few inches from the barriers making overtaking a perilous task if not impossible," said three- time world champion Niki Lauda.

"Whatever else one thinks about it, the Monaco Grand Prix is just special," said Michael Schumacher. "Rushing round the track almost touching the barriers not only increases one's motivation, but is also a real challenge. The real peculiarity about it is that it is really narrow. There are some parts where you cannot even see the apex of a corner until you are actually on it and that adds to the excitement."

Even the slightest error here is punished," continued Michael. "Finding the limit on a road generally used for normal traffic, which is completely different to a usual race track, is always difficult. You also have to consider how much you can let the car slide, which it wants to do all the time. It is very exciting"

Also exciting is the historic start to Lewis Hamilton's career. After winning the F3 Euroseries in 2005 and the GP2 series in 2006, he was ready to join the Formula One, but no one could have expected that he would be leading Formula One after four races. Not only is he leading the championship, Hamilton has finished on the podium in all four starts.

He has shown maturity beyond his years and the ability the make smart decisions when needed.

"I am really looking forward to Monaco - I have always run well there," said the 22-year-old, who has won three times in three tries in Monaco's support races.

"However, we do have to keep being realistic - this will be my fifth race in F1 and I am still developing."

Fernando Alonso, the two-time defending World Champion is just two points behind his McLaren teammate. The Spaniard won the 2006 Grand Prix of Monaco with Renault, but has seemed to have trouble with his Bridgestone tires despite being second overall.

"I have not had the results I have wanted at the previous two races but I have kept scoring good points and we have continued to develop the performance of the car," said Alonso.

While McLaren's drivers hold the top-two position in the standings, it is Ferrari that has won three of four events.

Brazilian Felipe Massa has won the last two races at Bahrain and Barcelona and sits just one point behind Alonso and three markers behind Hamilton. And in his first year with Ferrari, Kimi Raikkonen won the season opener in Australia and was tied for the championship lead until two week's ago at Spain when an electrical problem left him with a disappointing 19th-place finish.

The F1 championship should continue to be a four-driver, two-team battle between McLaren and Ferrari.

Watch qualifying this week. With passing almost impossible, the qualifying session should be almost as exciting as the race itself.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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