09/09/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The battle for the championship in NASCAR's premier series begins this weekend as the New Hampshire Motor Speedway kicks off the 10-race "Chase for the Sprint Cup." The Craftsman Truck Series will also be in Loudon, NH. Meanwhile, Formula One moves on to Monza, Italy for the Italian Grand Prix.
NASCAR
Sprint Cup Series
Sylvania 300 - New Hampshire Motor Speedway - Loudon, NH
Now that the 26-race "regular season" has been completed in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, it's time for the top-12 drivers to decide the championship in the final 10-race "Chase for the Sprint Cup," which begins Sunday at New Hampshire.
Kyle Busch starts the "Chase" atop the standing with 5,080 points by virtue of his eight victories this season. Edwards is second with 5,050 points, and Johnson, with victories in the last two weeks, begins in the third seed with 5,040 points. Busch, Edwards and Johnson have combined for 18 wins so far this year, a record for a three-driver combination starting the playoffs.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton have one victory and begin the "Chase" with 5,010 points each. Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth have yet to win this season and head to New Hampshire with 5,000 points each.
With 80 points currently separating the 12 drivers in the "Chase," the first race is indeed critical as New Hampshire can either make or break a driver's chance of winning the championship.
In 2004, the first year of the "Chase" format, Kurt Busch started the final 10 races with a victory at New Hampshire. Busch, however, did not win again during the remainder of the season, but with consistent finishes in the remaining nine races, he beat Johnson for the title by only eight points, the closest margin in series history. In that same New Hampshire race, Stewart was involved in an accident in the early-stages and finished 39th. He never recovered in the "Chase" and ended the '04 season sixth in points.
Last year, Bowyer started the "Chase" as the 12th seed, but after scoring his first career Cup victory at New Hampshire, he moved up to fourth in the standings. He remained a championship contender until Johnson won four out of the last five races to end the season as the champion. Bowyer finished the year third in points. Just barely making it into this year's "Chase," Bowyer hopes for a season-turnaround with a repeat victory at New Hampshire.
"It's been a struggle all summer long and just making this 'Chase' just kind of makes up for that a little bit and hopefully we can keep our heads to the grindstone and get after it," Bowyer said.
Two-time defending series champion Johnson will attempt to win his third- straight race. After victories at California and Richmond, Johnson has established himself as the hottest driver in the series heading into the "Chase." He is a two-time race winner at New Hampshire with both victories coming there during the 2003 season. Johnson finished ninth at New Hampshire one year ago and sixth there in June.
"I'm trying to show up at the next race scared, worried about 11 other guys, and worry about doing my part," Johnson said. "And the thing is I have confidence in what my abilities are and what my team is capable of and the packages we have put together in the last five or six months - short track, big track, all of it."
Johnson's Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Jeff Gordon, began the 2007 "Chase" in the second seed. But after a less-than-stellar season, the four-time Cup champion starts this year's playoffs in the 10th spot. Gordon, winless since October 2007 at Charlotte (31 races ago), is now 80 points behind leader Busch. Last year, he recorded two victories and nine top-10 finishes in the "Chase," but ended the season second in points (-77).
Gordon won his Cup championships in 1995, '97, '98 and 2001 but has fallen short of claiming his fifth.
"This format is exciting for the fans, and it's exciting for the competitors," Gordon said. "And while I could have and should have won more championships if we were still using the season-long format, I think this one is better for our sport. But I do think it's tougher to win. Instead of the two or three or four guys racing for the championship at this point in the season, we now have 12 guys that could win it and anything can happen."
Joey Logano's much anticipated Sprint Cup debut last weekend at Richmond has been postponed until New Hampshire thanks to Tropical Storm Hanna. The field for Richmond was set by car owner points and that put Logano on the sidelines. He was in a fourth entry for Joe Gibbs Racing. Logano, a native of Middletown, CT, will drive the No.96 Toyota for Hall of Fame Racing and have to qualify on time to make the show at New Hampshire. He will replace Tony Stewart in the No.20 Toyota for JGR in Sprint Cup next year when Stewart moves over to Stewart-Haas Racing.
Craftsman Truck Series
Camping World RV Rental 200 - New Hampshire Motor Speedway - Loudon, NH
After winning at the Gateway International Raceway in dominating fashion last Saturday, Ron Hornaday, Jr. built momentum towards his NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series title defense. Hornaday led 113 of 160 laps en route to his fourth victory of the season and his first at Gateway. He also cut 25 points off Johnny Benson's lead in the championship standings with eight races to go in the season. Benson finished third and hung on to a 94-point advantage.
Heading into New Hampshire, it appears to be a two-man race for the title as third-place Matt Crafton is now 199 points behind after finishing 12th at Gateway.
Benson and Hornaday have the most victories in the series so far this year with four each. Hornaday comes to New Hampshire as the defending race winner. He is also the only repeat race winner there.
"New Hampshire is a track that fits my driving style," Hornaday said. "It's flat for the most part and has a little bit of banking in the turns. I have had some really good runs at New Hampshire in the past. We had a good race there last year and led the most laps and won. I'm the only repeat winner at that track."
Hornaday won the inaugural truck race at New Hampshire in 1996 when he drove for Dale Earnhardt, Inc.
Benson won at New Hampshire in 2006 but finished eighth in last year's race there.
Dennis Setzer, meanwhile, gained momentum after an impressive second-place finish at Gateway. Setzer moved up to ninth in points. The Bobby Hamilton Racing-VA Dodge driver also captured his fourth career pole, but his first in seven years.
"You can do a lot of things to make a team better," Setzer said. "You can add new people, buy new parts and even change the driver from time to time. But I think the one thing that makes a team better is something you can't buy. Momentum by far has to be the best ingredient for a winning team. Winning the pole and finishing second last weekend in Gateway was icing on the cake. I have known all year long this team could do that, but it just takes everything going your way."
Setzer will compete in his 16th NASCAR race at New Hampshire this weekend. He has previously made one Sprint Cup, five Nationwide and nine Truck Series starts there. In 1999, Setzer scored the victory in the truck race at New Hampshire after holding off Mike Wallace at the finish.
Formula One
Italian Grand Prix - Autodromo Nazionale di Monza - Monza, Italy
The shock waves continued following the controversial finish in the Belgian Grand Prix as McLaren confirmed Tuesday they have filed an appeal against the penalty that was assessed to driver Lewis Hamilton at the conclusion of the race. Hamilton was originally declared the winner at the 4.352-mile Spa- Francorchamps circuit, but race stewards penalized the McLaren Mercedes driver 25 seconds for cutting a chicane and gaining an advantage on then-leader Kimi Raikkonen during their late-race battle.
"Following our decision to register our intention to appeal the penalty handed out to Lewis Hamilton by the FIA Stewards at the 2008 Belgian Grand Prix, we hereby confirm that we have now lodged notice of appeal," McLaren's Formula One CEO Martin Whitmarsh said in a team statement.
Ferrari's Felipe Massa crossed the finish line second but was credited with the victory after Hamilton was dropped to third place. BMW Sauber's Nick Heidfeld moved up to second.
As a result, Hamilton's lead is just two points over Massa with five races remaining in the season.
"I managed to get slightly ahead of (Raikkonen) in the braking area for the first apex of the chicane," Hamilton said. "He fought back approaching the second apex - but, in doing so, he left no room for me on the inside line. The only way for me to avoid a collision was therefore to cut inside the second apex."
Hamilton claimed he did not gain an advantage on Raikkonen.
"I came out of the second apex in front of Raikkonen and so I momentarily lifted-off on the straight, to ensure that he got back in front," Hamilton said. "As a result, he crossed the start/finish line ahead of me. After allowing him to completely repass, I crossed from the left side of the track to the right side of the track, passing behind him in the process. I then attacked him on the inside of the first corner and successfully outbraked him."
An appeal date has not been set at this time.
Meanwhile, Formula One teams move on to the longest and one of the fastest tracks on the circuit, the 3.6-mile Autodromo Nazionale di Monza in Italy, for Sunday's Italian Grand Prix. Drivers love Monza, where speeds can reach more than 350 km/h. Renault's Fernando Alonso is looking forward to defending his race title there.
"It's an outstanding, fast circuit and drivers always like to go fast," Alonso said. "The feeling in the car is always a bit strange for the first few laps because we run the cars with very low downforce and so it feels very light and uncertain, and that makes the chicanes quite challenging. But it's an interesting circuit, and there is always a special atmosphere so I am looking forward to it."
The Italian Grand Prix, now in its 59th year, is the longest standing F1 event on the schedule. It has taken place at its current location on all but one of those occasions. This historic track is another favorite for most of the team personnel, thanks to the electric atmosphere created by Ferrari's fans - the tifosi. After Hockenheim in Germany, Monza is the quickest track on the circuit. The track was built in the Royal Park in 1922 and features a two- track layout -- a normal road course and a banked oval. Monza has hosted the World Championship-deciding race 12 times, more than any other track, but not since 1979 when Jody Scheckter clinched it for Ferrari and became the last Italian World Champion.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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